By John M. Bassett, Granite State News Collaborative

COVID-19 indicators for New Hampshire have remained high over the past week, far above the highest levels seen during the first wave at the end of 2020.

"The trend is discouraging," said Martha Wassell, Director of Infection Prevention at Dover's Wentworth-Douglass Hospital, in emailed comments on Wednesday. She said the increase is "unequivocally driven by insufficient vaccination and booster rates in our community, combined with lack of consistent indoor mask use. Many people gathered indoors for the Thanksgiving holiday, likely unaware of their COVID-19 infection status."

According to data from the state's official COVID response dashboard, the state averaged 1,146 new cases per day for the week ending Wednesday Dec. 15, down slightly from 1,354 a week earlier. The share of antigen and PCR tests coming back positive, as measured by the seven-day average for the week ending Tuesday, was 11.8 percent, also down slightly from 13.2 percent a week ago. 475 people were hospitalized for the disease as of Tuesday, up from 458 the previous week.

The 7-day moving average for cases had fallen in the first half of the year, bottoming out at just 16 at the end of June, but has quickly risen since then. That number peaked at 1,384 on December 5th. The average has fallen slightly in the last week and a half, but the state is still averaging roughly 300 cases per day more than it was at the height of the first wave in December 2020.

New Hampshire's per capita count of new daily cases is now the second-highest in the country, according to data from the New York Times, surpassed only by Rhode Island.

Hospitals in New Hampshire are struggling to keep up with the spike in cases. The number of daily hospitalizations has more than doubled in the last five weeks, up from just 186 on November 2. As of Wednesday, less than one percent of the state's staffed adult ICU beds were still available.

Wassell noted that her hospital is straining under the load.

"Our emergency rooms are full, often with seats and wheelchairs lining the hallways outside of the regular Emergency waiting room," she said. "Our Critical Care unit is full, and critical care surge areas are also approaching capacity."

Dr. Jose Mercado, Dartmouth-Hitchcock's COVID-19 Response Leader, said his hospital was also staffing shortages. In an email Wednesday, he also noted the additional stressor that we are in the middle of our viral respiratory illness season, and urged people to stay healthy so as to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system.

"Consistency with wearing our masks, respiratory etiquette, and good hand hygiene are all additive layers of protection," he said.

The death rate in New Hampshire has steadily climbed since mid-July. During a press conference Wednesday, the NH Department of Health and Human Services announced seven new COVID-related deaths, including residents of Cheshire, Hillsborough (2), Rockingham (3), and Strafford counties. As of Monday, an average of three people were dying of COVID each day, down from a high of seven on December 9. This is less than the peak of 12 deaths per day during the first wave.

DHHS announced New Hampshire’s first Omicron case on Monday. The patient, a Cheshire County resident, was fully vaccinated but not yet boosted. The person suffered a mild illness and has since recovered, according to DHHS.

Support staff from FEMA and the National Guard are arriving this week to help several area hospitals deal with the surge.

As of Wednesday, there were 8,982 known active cases. There have been more than 180,000 confirmed cases and 1,800 COVID-related deaths in New Hampshire since the pandemic began.

Vaccinations

Vaccination rates continue to rise, though state and federal vaccination data for New Hampshire remain far out of sync. Data from DHHS shows that 61.7 percent of Granite Staters have received at least one dose, while the number from the CDC is much higher, at 94 percent. Similarly, DHHS reports that 55.5 percent of Granite Staters are fully vaccinated, while the CDC's number is ten points higher, at 66 percent. The discrepancy between DHHS and the CDC in terms of total doses delivered is now nearly 1.2 million.

According to reporting by NHPR last month, this discrepancy is partially due to the conclusion of the state of emergency in New Hampshire on June 11 and the earlier introduction of a new, underfunded vaccine registry system, the New Hampshire Immunization Information System, (NHIIS).

These data collection issues don’t change the fact that vaccines are the most effective defense against the virus. Clinical trials have shown the Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines to be highly effective in protecting people against COVID-19, and they may also make the illness milder in those who do get sick, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. There is limited evidence from Pfizer's own laboratory trials that a third booster dose of their vaccine offered increased protection against the Omicron variant compared to people that only received the two dose primary series. Moderna and J&J have yet to release any of their own data about how their vaccines perform against the new variant.

Mercado urged people to get vaccinated and to get a booster, if eligible.

"We need to trust the science," he said. "We have good evidence that these mitigation strategies work. Following the public health guidance will keep you and your loved ones safe."

People can register for a vaccine by visiting vaccines.nh.gov or calling 211.

These articles are being shared by partners in The Granite State News Collaborative. For more information visit collaborativenh.org.