Polling techniques have been adjusted to be more accurate since 2016. But it’s still unclear whether they can predict which candidate will win come November.
By Kenneth Tran, Granite State News Collaborative
National polling shows former vice-president Joe Biden to be significantly leading incumbent President Donald Trump, by 8 to 14 points according to national polls. New Hampshire currently reflects national polling as well. On Oct. 8th and Oct. 13th respectively, Saint Anselm College and UNH released polls showing Biden leading by 12 points in the state. On Oct. 14th, Suffolk University released a poll showing Biden leading by 10 points. But despite Biden’s strong lead, it is crucial to know that things can still change in the last stretch before Nov. 3rd.
New Hampshire has proven to be a key battleground state for both presidential candidates, with candidate surrogates from both sides arriving to the state to persuade key voters. Vice President Mike Pence hosted a rally at Laconia Municipal Airport on Sept. 22 and Joe Biden’s spouse, Dr. Jill Biden stopped by Manchester for a campaign event on Oct. 2nd.
Frequent stops from both campaigns illustrates how important New Hampshire is to prospective presidential candidates. In October 2016, then Democratic Nominee Hillary Clinton was holding a strong lead over Trump, leading roughly five points ahead, according to polls. But by election day Trump and the Republican party managed to tighten the lead significantly. On election day, Clinton clinched the state, with 0.4% more votes than Trump.
A Valuable Electoral State
New Hampshire has historically been a purple state in presidential elections, never reliably being a surefire Democratic state or a Republican state. Undeclared voters are the largest voting population in New Hampshire, making up 38% of the electorate.
Biden currently holds a stronger lead than Clinton did in 2016, but the volatility of the state is not to be underestimated, come November 3rd.
“We really are a purple state and four electoral votes are very valuable,” said Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College in Manchester. “If Al Gore won the four electoral votes [in 2000], he would have been the President of the United States … there would never have been a Florida recount.”
Polling only gives a picture of voters in one moment — not an iron-clad prediction of how they’ll vote in November.
“Polling is just a snapshot for that period in time, things can change, and as we’ve seen the volatility of elections,” Levesque said. “You know, a month ago, we didn’t have a Supreme Court nomination.”
The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg — and the opportunity to fill her seat — has given the election additional significance for many voters.
But What About 2016?
In 2016, Clinton was heavily favored to win against Trump. But despite the national polls, Trump secured the 270 electoral votes he needed, winning the presidency without the popular vote. The polls leading up to the election showed an easy victory for Clinton, but what happened?
“In 2016, what happened with polling was, we saw that a lot of people who never really voted much, came out. You could be a registered voter, but never voted in the last twelve years.” Levesque said. “And all of a sudden, Trump was able to somehow capitalize on these outsiders and it brought this type of voter to the polls.”
Pollsters have learned a lot from 2016. Pollsters that undercounted these unlikely voters now have them in their database, including the Saint Anselm College Survey Center.
Unlikely voters were only one of many problems with polling during the last presidential election. One of the biggest takeaways was that a voter’s education level matters when it comes to their preferred candidate. 2016 revealed that college graduates — who are more likely to vote Democratic — are much more likely to pick up calls than those with a high-school level education. As a result, their voices were over-represented in 2016 polling. Pollsters have since adjusted accordingly, weighing and giving more value to poll respondents with a high-school level education.
Biden maintains a strong lead even with polling changes. But like Levesque said, election day could be wildly different if a major event upheaves the election. Only when we have the results of the election will we know if pollsters learned enough from their mistakes from 2016.
Kenneth Tran is an Election SOS fellow. These articles are being shared by partners in The Granite State News Collaborative. For more information visit collaborativenh.org.